Real Estate, Sex & Gossip

Real Estate Wrapped 2025, Reset For 2026

• Paul Locatelli & Brian DeDiego • Season 4 • Episode 1

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A messy milestone turned into a market x-ray: our scrappy show crossed 2,000 downloads, and that sparked a bigger question—what actually creates momentum in real estate when the ground keeps shifting? We follow the thread from podcast habits to housing signals and map how consistency, guest energy, and smart channels beat loud noise every time.

We start with a clear 2025 wrap: agent counts are falling, per-agent productivity is splitting, and sellers’ expectations still trail the data. The average first-time buyer is now 40, foreclosures remain low, and the economy feels divided—homeowners steadier, renters stretched by credit cards, auto loans, and student debt. Zooming into Santa Cruz, the city is building upward near bus corridors while routes consolidate to main arteries. Rents fill fast, for-sale lags behind, and prices are not “affordable” at first. As supply scales, we expect pressure to normalize and some demand to drift back toward single-family homes at the edges, especially as inheritance-driven sales hit the market in waves.

Rates set the mood for 2026. We’re eyeing an average near six percent, with possible high-five dips that trigger pent-up demand. If that happens, prices likely firm, not fall, which makes the buy-now-refi-later play sensible for those with stable jobs. We also lay out the buyer map: dual-income tech households crossing from San Jose and the broader Bay Area, looking for lifestyle and space. Expect seasonality to return—spring surges, quieter winters—so plan your listings, pre-approvals, and renovation timelines with that rhythm in mind.

On the business side, we call the marketing shot: LinkedIn and Substack outperform vanity metrics. A few high-signal conversations beat thousands of empty likes. Show the work, walk the neighborhoods, and let trust compound. Human guidance still wins where AI can’t—during the emotional, high-stakes moments of a purchase or sale. If you’re watching for telltales in 2026, watch rates and the Bay inflow. If you’re building an edge, build consistency and relationships.

Enjoy this one—and if it helps you see your next move more clearly, subscribe, share with a friend, and leave a quick review so more people can find the show. What signal are you watching first?

SPEAKER_00:

Put that shit on red then. Now I am recording, though. Now you are on the record, boys. It's a real estate sex and gossip podcast. Boys? You. Back. Brian? Happy holidays, buddy. Right back at you guys. Merry Christmas. It's been a while. Happy America. We have a little news that uh, it's happy holidays. It's not Merry Christmas. That's not politically correct anymore, Paul. You know what? Kiss my ass. Here we go. Paul, you can suck a big one. Hey, by the way, my neighbor wants to be on the podcast next time. Tell him happy holidays from me. No, he he says Merry Christmas. He doesn't know that.

SPEAKER_01:

Is he the power attorney?

SPEAKER_00:

Uh no, his uh husband.

SPEAKER_01:

Oh, I'd love to have them on here.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah. Power attorney, I don't know if he'll come on, but his husband will come come on. He's actually very intelligent in marketing background from France. I was telling Paul before you got here, Brian, that um for as inconsistent as this is, his podcast went past 2,000 downloads last week. Nice. I can't believe people fucking listen to us. They do. They do. And I think the key the secret sauce, really, when you look back on it, there's two different worlds we live in here is those guests do push it huge. There's no doubt about it. I think the earlier ones where it was just the real estate, um, it has its numbers. And it's not like double or anything, but man, when you get a guest in to kind of co-promote it and the energy in those conversations, um, it's a big thing. And we got one on the back half of this today, right, Bri?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, I'm super I'm I'm excited just because it's a personal thing for me. Yeah. Can you give a little tease? Yeah, well, when I was a kid growing up, my mom was a part of a woman's power group, I called them, but it was a Suro Optimus International. And um, she always went to these meetings. My mom was very involved, I think I believe she was the president of Suroptimus for a while. And they always gave to an organization and it was the Women's Center. And, you know, I just sat and listened as a kid and grow up, and they went to a lot of events before that. And my mom passed. And Paul and I were talking the other day, and I'm like, hey, you know, why don't we bring something on that means something to us and somebody we don't know, so this should be interesting, and have them on.

SPEAKER_00:

So I told them no swearing either. That would be the first. It might be 2,000 downloads. Um you want to you want to get no downloads, is don't swear on this thing.

unknown:

Facts.

SPEAKER_00:

Half of it is you being yourself. No, but with I think we always talk about it. We always maybe the New Year's resolution is we do try to find a pace in 2026 for this podcast. Um, even if it's monthly again, you know, something like that, or we drop maybe what we do is for the listeners is we do what we kind of had the intention of is we come in and we do two 45s or something like that. So we can drop a couple different guests, and then that kind of gives the content. But um it's doing really well, all things considered, that we're not consistent. And the number one rule podcasting is be consistent. Oh, really? You have to be consistent. The two number one shows on the Vibes Network overall are the two shows that are irregular. Stacy and I's in yours, we're like every what it's anywhere between every month and eight months as we kind of get it together.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, so Walnut Avenue, I mean, we'll make the introduction, family and women's center. Yep. Um so we're gonna have the director of operations coming in, Heather Heen, and I'm excited to talk to her.

SPEAKER_00:

And actually, yeah, because we have one of her clients with their other property management company. Oh, we do? Mm-hmm. Oh, awesome. But first things first, I think you kind of like in the text string we're gonna talk about as we wind down 25. Is the goal today to kind of talk about is it or is it a Spotify wrapped of the real estate market for 2025 and looking forward to 26? Is that sort of way we want to go?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah. I mean, I think we, you know, we Paul and I, uh, thanks to Jeff Wickham, um, you know, Paul and I have had our own thoughts about the market, which actually a lot of them aligned uh with an individual out of Canada by the name of Brian Bufini. And so um, you know, we have some quick fun notes for what we expect in 2026. Yeah. And and and really what's happening right now. And you know, I hate admitting this, especially out to people, but you know, Paul's been pretty spot on about a few things.

SPEAKER_00:

Oh, go figure.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, it is it's shocker.

SPEAKER_00:

How good is that? It seems fucking impossible. I almost I made a shirt, but it haven't finished it yet. The 2.0, and I'm gonna say something that's probably not. Oh no. Hold on. I gotta I gotta make sure.

SPEAKER_01:

I want to hear it. Bring it, Vin. This is this is not gonna be good.

SPEAKER_00:

Okay. I I had no clue about this, but the this has been the joke for the last week at my house. So you guys tease me about the whole 2.0 can't get a great uh GPA over 2.0, right? I recall that absolutely fuck both of you. So I was gonna make that shirt, but now I have a new shirt to make with the 2.0, which is gonna it's even worse. So Kimi and I, real quick, Kimi and I were coming back from San Jose. We were getting off the 17. Yeah. And we were at a four-way stop sign, and I saw my son across the street. I go, hey, there's Justeppi. Yeah. Well, the short bus just came right in front of us, and my wife goes, he's not on that bus. And I go, what bus? That short bus. I go, what the fuck's a short bus? I go, what's a short bus? We can't publish this. Why?

SPEAKER_01:

Um okay. How about you go talk to Wendy?

SPEAKER_00:

Why are you throwing out names? I didn't think anybody's name. I go, what the hell is that? So then they all told me where the short bus was. You've you've lived your entire life without knowing that? Okay, it wouldn't be. That is a privileged life. We lived to elementary. That's what's normal. You don't know about the bus when you're on the bus. Right. So yeah, so the whole joke around my house now is I drive the bus. We just want my t-shirt. Medium. I like the uh tri I like the tri-blend uh unisex medium. I'm gonna put a couple of people on the bus and then their faces on it out the window. I like mine uh Unisex Medium when you do the t-shirt. That's fine. Garen loves it too, I found uh, so he's gonna be printing them up. Get get him a medium. Medium? Yeah.

SPEAKER_01:

So he actually looks like he has muscles? Yeah.

SPEAKER_00:

All right, real estate 2025 wrapped. There we go. Do you want to go backwards first, Bri? Or is it just get right into it? Well, I mean, whatever you want. You're in charge here. I think it would be I think it'd be fun to start this a little bit with a uh just kind of because I think we're gonna be anti let's give more of this to 2026. Just give like a recap of the market for 2025 with a couple weeks left in the year. You want to start, Paul?

SPEAKER_01:

I mean, I'm just I mean I just got I mean I got stats. Uh everybody's getting paid less. Um I take it back. Each check is worth more, but they're not getting as many. Right. Um I think single family homes uh with real estate agents, I think we're gonna close out. There's 1,200 agents, but it's gonna drop by 20 percent. Yep. It's already starting. The association has already verified that, correct, Paul? Yes. So people are not renewing um just because real estate's what unless I have to give Paul credit right now, is our market is basically going into 2019. Where we were. And we were on a high at 2019 before COVID hit, and then we thought that was gonna send us down. And of course, COVID, none of them nobody knew, took us the other way.

SPEAKER_00:

Right.

SPEAKER_01:

So we're going back into 2019. I think the numbers reflect that today from the association with single family homes closed. I think the agents are gonna average out at about 2.3 sales per agent. We know some are doing more, and we know some are doing zero. Um, but those numbers are historically lower than what we've been seeing. So it's a little tale just of the market. Part of that is sellers are not realistic, they're still living in the past. I don't blame them. I blame the agents who are educating them while they just want signs in front of their yard.

SPEAKER_00:

And from a layman's standpoint, we're also going into a new kind of um, you know, not only talking 25, but then you have to kind of in your industry also have to lay over statistics where, you know, the a lot of the reputation of the real estate industry is two people get married, they have 2.4 kids, they have two cars, all of these things. Generation coming up right now that's coming into money over the next zero, five, ten, fifteen years, priorities are very different. Yep. And priorities are gonna be very, you know, it's it's unique as far as what they're looking for. One, we already know it's almost cut in half, the birth rate is getting towards cut in half. So it changes the dynamic, changes what the inventory is gonna look like. And this is beyond this conversation, but I'm talking like the next zero to twenty years. Um, it's not just the industry you're in, it's you got to kind of anticipate the markets coming into money up. But that brings us to who's buying, who's a first-time buyer now? What age group? Oh, I love us. What is it? We're asking you. I'm asking you, what was it back when you were doing it? You mean uh I was never in real estate. You've got when I was buying, yeah, buying it. When was your first house? I feel like at 26, 27. That was average back in. Does that seem right? Like this is 20. 20, 20 years. 30 years ago. 2001. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So average age now is 40 years old. Oh my God, there it is. 40. There it is. Kids don't want to buy. So they don't want to buy, but they're coming into the market probably with two incomes, a little bit more to put down. When they do come in, it's different than trying to squeeze in, say, with five or ten percent down at 26 years old, playing all the games, right? You come in at 40, likely you're talking two incomes coming into it, unless somebody's one of parents passed away. That's another one. That's the trillion dollar that's a trillion dollar question right there. There's all the houses. That's the big one. You know, once those 40-year-olds, their parents are probably what? 70, late 70s, early 80s, 80s. They're dying. Kids don't live around here. They they want the cash. They want to cash out.

SPEAKER_01:

So if you're waiting, just push them in front of a bus. Is that what you're saying, Paul? To get there quicker. It's it is the new phenomenon. Nobody can see Paul moving his hands with his little bus.

SPEAKER_00:

It is the new phenomenon in our building. And you know this property where we're at 870 Park Ave over there. And again, not single family, but there's a temperature in there that's different. My aunt bought there in 90. Um, and so I've been around that complex this whole time, and it was always basically, you know, transaction to transaction. 60, 70% of people used to live there, um, and they would sell and a new family would move in. Right. 100% now is that people that originally got in there in the 70s and 80s, they're dying, and the kids are coming in, cleaning it up, selling it, and getting out. Yep. Yeah.

unknown:

Wow. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00:

And a lot of people up in here, you know, Santa Cruz, we all love it. We've had a great conversation. Like a lot of building has gone on in 2025. Downtown Santa Cruz, yeah. Skyscrapers here now. Yeah. It's like a buddy of mine who knows design, he goes, Why did they build them all the same? Why do they look the same? I go, great question. It's the city council. They didn't want no building all these years. Now they have a ton of building, but they got to have a little charm to them, right? Yeah. Something that looks good. It doesn't look good. No, it literally is just it is like a block. It's affordable housing. And I've seen it in downtown Denver and Rhino district where um it's is it affordable though? They're$4,500 for a little one bedroom or two bedrooms. What I've seen in other markets, and this would be in the two markets I've lived in, one was back east and one was in Denver, is the answer is no in this stage right now. The answer long term is yes, once you saturate the market with a bunch of those box houses. You know, and then the thing I don't know about, which is interesting for you to talk about, what is the impact of that? Because it feels to me over a period of time, that's gonna reopen the single family housing again. If a lot of people go in this affordable housing, you know, like let's say they get into some of these skyscrapers down here, right? Um, then you're gonna start to see, I think, an interesting move in the market here again, where some single family homes on the outskirts might be open again. I don't know. What do you think? That's a good good question. I don't know what they're gonna think. And I mean, no, you keep saying affordable. I haven't seen anybody selling these things yet. Well, I know the one on the corner down um by the the ASTER That's that's a rentals. Yeah, rentals yeah, that's true. That's 86% rented. But this though the ones for the Is there's I haven't is there so I I'm a bad agent, I don't even know there's even for sale there. I think it's the ones on the other side that are gonna be for sale. Across the river. They're not built yet, yeah. Yeah. Those aren't yeah. But yeah, it's it's just it's an interesting one. It is a field of dreams concept. You know, you sort of that whole class build it and they'll come. Yeah, and they're talking businesses, they're talking infrastructure, they're talking about it. Yeah, where where are we all gonna park, traffic, and everything else? Then they're building that so there is no parking there. They're building it so it's one car per unit. Okay, we we we have no the roads aren't built for all the people coming in and town.

SPEAKER_01:

Do you guys see the circle that's going around? You you both are correct, but through knowledge and people we've spoken to, and let's start at the basics. The bus, the bus routes have changed. They've pulled a lot of seats. There's not as many stops anymore. And why? They're focusing on main thoroughfare areas. 41st Avenue, Capitola Road, 717th. That's where you guys are gonna start seeing four and five unit buildings going up. It's gonna happen in our county. There's no way it's not gonna happen. And and transportation's first, they're already directing, they've already made those changes. A lot of bus stops have been pulled. I don't know if you've noticed. I've totally noticed. Okay, but what you're gonna see now is you're gonna see a lot of um, which Santa Cruz is not used to, but you're gonna actually see a lot of four and five story buildings getting approved. And they're gonna be built. Um and and they're gonna be along aren't happy about those. I understand, but they're gonna be along those things to help with parking. It's one one big circle that's happening that people are starting to realize that's going on, but they won't a lot of people won't realize until they physically see it when they're driving down the street. Well if you do in Santa Cruz here.

SPEAKER_00:

And again, nostalgically, I think we want it to be something else, but the bottom line is it's very much assured, it's not working. You know, what the the way it is right now or has been, it's working for a select view, but it's not overwhelmingly working for the community. Um and so that's sort of the that's sort of the look back on it and the current one. As far as um we could be having an interest rate cut again as we speak right now, right? Yes. And that and that's uh let's just kind of start there and then I think I'll let you go into your notes, Brian. Um, what is the emotion in the market? What does that mean to you guys when you hear that? It means something different to us on the street. What's it mean to you guys when you hear that?

SPEAKER_01:

Well, I I I mean, I look at the market in general right now. I mean, let's start here. There, there's a lot of and we welcome all new agents. There's a ton of agents. I think the philosophy of agents has changed, right? Paul and I, we are older right now. What? I hate I hate saying it. I'm not older. We're we're we're we're older right now. And so but you look at it the way we work, we work differently, right? Because we do have a little bit of old school that's in us.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01:

If you look at a lot of these new agents right now, they're quote trying to come out as influencers. Go through social media, go through everything. They're all about likes, they're all about how many people watch my video, but a lot of them don't have any results in terms of sales. And if you don't believe me, go grab your favorite five realtors here in Santa Cruz County and go look at all their social media, and that's gonna go social media is always gonna be here, but a lot of that's going away. People have gotten away from relationships.

SPEAKER_00:

I totally agree.

SPEAKER_01:

It is about relationships, and I hope the new agents understand that, but they are very involved in their social media of how many people, you know, like me doing a backflip down the street, um, or I'm flying out of the sky into this new home, come check out, right? It's creative. It gets at, but at the end of the day, if you don't have any people skills, that means nothing.

SPEAKER_00:

That's it. And I think one of the things at our one of the constant drum beats that I have at our pickup parties is we talk about social media, it's an it's a necessary evil, but the visual I get is um a lot of times with social media, what you end up doing is you'll take an image, you'll take a video, and you post it. And it's and it you either put a lot of money into it or you're very good at what you do, and you post it, and what you want to do is float it out into the universe. You want people to love you and transact with you. And the reality of it is is even though that's a necessary part of our business right now, some level of social media, you do a good job, Paul, when you're just you know got the truck out and you're actually flipping a house and doing things like that, like a practical one. But my point with that floating it over is to your point, Brian, you need to walk in the community, not float images and videos over the top and hope you can singularly transact with one person. It might work, but that's a unicorn. Yeah. That's a unicorn with especially with the inventory right now, especially with the competitiveness of it. Uh the chance of you having a video that's so captivating at the right time to the right person that has a down payment for house is nearly zero. Correct. And go ahead. No, no. So I mean, we came back from Dallas and they were talking about that too. This guy is a big uh marketing guy from New York, and he was saying, forget about Facebook, forget about Instagram, go to LinkedIn. He's like, those are the people that have money. I've got to show you these proposals on right now because it's I mean, we if you think about it, we don't do my I'm starting to do a little bit of it, but LinkedIn's where everybody has the money. Substack, LinkedIn. You can find a community on LinkedIn. And um the thing about LinkedIn also is you have a little bit more wiggle room. It's officially a social media platform, but you have that wiggle room for narrative. You had a wiggle room for a little exposition as far as what you're talking about. Um, and you do have a better chance, Paul. Um, you can get 4,000 likes on a drone shot, but if you can get 250 basically engagements on LinkedIn and a couple conversations going, you you there's a high probability that you've just made the you know the you know an engagement that's gonna transact for you. That's what he's saying. So he's also said to do a hundred people per date. Meaning go and like a hundred people new a date, say on LinkedIn? Yeah. Friend em, friend em, friendem.

SPEAKER_01:

So all our competitors that listen to this keep listening Well, there's gonna be twenty percent less according to you.

SPEAKER_00:

There is and fourteen percent more sales.

SPEAKER_01:

And there's fourteen percent more sales predicted for two thousand.

SPEAKER_00:

How's that for you? I don't know. You can't do that math. I know that. I I know one. But I can't, I got you both. I know one hundred percent. You just threw out some confident numbers. You can't do that, man. Well, a lot of people You're right. I mean a lot of people are following circle.

SPEAKER_01:

Hey, it's tough. Right now, if you ask about the real estate market, it's tough. Okay? Any realtor is gonna sit there and tell you it's not, they're just that's an ego. I'm sorry. The real estate market, the numbers, everything show it overall, and we'll use this nation across the board as a tough real estate market. But the people that work hard for their clients, again, we'll get their clients home and get it sold. There's gonna be 20% less agents, there's gonna be 14% more sales for 2026, right? And what do they say? You gotta have hope and you gotta have a plan. And if you don't have a plan, you better hope a lot because you need to have a plan to put together if you're gonna want to provide for your family coming up this year.

SPEAKER_00:

So, like I'm a fifth grader again, the the 14% let's stay on that has anything to do with or nothing to do with the interest rate cut.

SPEAKER_01:

Oh, I think it's gonna have a lot to do a little bit with the cuts, and that's part of the predictions that they do, but they still feel that interest rates on average for 2026 are gonna be at six percent. Now they're not going down to five, threes, fours.

SPEAKER_00:

Right.

SPEAKER_01:

Now this it might be the high fives, but this comes from Dr. Lawrence Young. He's an economist. I've had I've been really fortunate to hear him speak on a few things. And just for people that are listening, um so Can I stop real quick?

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, for sure. The dude is ready today. Brian. Hey game. This is blowing my mind right now.

SPEAKER_01:

Hi, Heather. Nice to meet you. We have you. She's in the epic.

SPEAKER_00:

We've talked about the epic and 94 things we can do with for you if we're gonna be able to do that. We have seven minutes before Heather gets on. Heather's in the green room.

SPEAKER_01:

Um but here's some quick stats for you, right? So six percent rates.

SPEAKER_00:

No more swearing.

SPEAKER_01:

Uh I know. Unemployment um rate's gonna be stable, is what they're predicting right now. The biggest issue, and I think a lot of people around here feel it too, are auto loans and credit card debt and student loans all rising. Right. Okay, that's happening right now. Owners, and here's our divide. I would say, especially here in Santa Cruz, and we want to help change that. But owners are doing well, renters are struggling and when you come in. And lots of renters want to become owners, and some don't, and that's their choice. But there is definitely a divide. Yeah, there's a divide across the nation. Um, foreclosure rates for all those people that are super that oh, we're gonna go into it, low. So if you think you're gonna be in a foreclosure rate rates rate rates, Business next year, you ain't doing much. We have a divided economy as we speak right now.

SPEAKER_00:

And we've already sort of had um, I think the when I hear this from a layman standpoint again is that when I hear low foreclosure rates, that means the band-aid's already been pulled on some of that, right? People are sitting on their inventory or people are staying in their places, maybe doing a little refinancing but not going anywhere. Is that what I'm hearing? I think it's mix all the way.

SPEAKER_01:

Everything's mixed. But for the agents, for you guys that are out there, just remember buying a home is emotional. AI doesn't have any emotions. So just note, because a lot of people are so focused on AI, but AI does not help with emotions. That's where agents are so important, being a conduit for your clients of referrals and things which people can get online, but just having that human emotional element when you're buying a home, it's critical. And that is not going away, even with all the changes in the industry that are currently happening right now. And there's a lot of them.

SPEAKER_00:

Right. And we talk about that. Paul, you know, I think Paul's so good at it.

SPEAKER_01:

He's so good at it.

SPEAKER_00:

That's where I was gonna get to. Because over these podcasts, the one thing I've known is like that is why you won't be part of that 20% for a million different reasons. Because I think the one thing about it is, you know, in the business that you guys are in, being on this podcast, not knowing anything about it, you guys are therapists almost. I mean, that's a big it's a big transaction for people, right? I mean, it's yeah, we always talk about it. Clearly, it's gonna be the largest transaction you've ever had. Um, and I think it becomes monopoly money in some ways, but then in the quiet of their rooms, when it's coming down to paying the bills and stuff, you guys are therapists a little bit. 100%. I mean, we're always talking about you know, family, the friends, what's gonna happen? Is this the right move? Is it the wrong move? You know, so it's you we're definitely therapists, we're definitely contractors, we're definitely people to find something for you. So it's like we're like the middle person. We we we we help you find things. I've never asked you this. Have do you guys ever like do you have like a like a little coalition? Do you guys give people like financial advisors? No, don't start me on that. Oh my god, don't give me, believe me, don't don't even touchy subject. The um well, I must have to hit pause right now.

SPEAKER_01:

They're coming across the table.

SPEAKER_00:

I I literally completely lost my train of thought there. But what I was gonna say, you know, as far as like, you know, when when you're in this, do you guys have financial advisors that you like? Let's say you meet somebody and do you even get into that game at all where you're like, yo, I know a dude that can, you know, like let's say you get somebody that's got the money, but they're a little bit overwhelmed with the process. Do you do any of that, like delegating out to like a financial advisor or coach? Okay, right on. Yeah. So we definitely do. We're conduits. Yeah, we're that's what I'm saying. We we help, we're the middle people. We help you get to what you need. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01:

And everybody needs something different. Yeah. And that's the beauty. Yeah, we have we have lots of different people that we refer out to. And some are we think are gonna be good for some and not for others. And sometimes we just give them all to them. I mean, it's it's a mixed baggage for sure.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, because you got a responsibility, right? Somebody just cashed out some stocks, they got two million to buy a house, but they know nothing. They might be in their late 20s, know nothing about what to do with that money to have it make money per se. Um, you help them with that.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, we and we can't direct. That's called steering. We can't direct people one way, like a big company is getting sued right now that is doing. So this that's gonna that's gonna be a hot topic for 2026.

SPEAKER_00:

It's real estate, sex, and gossip. Gossip. Uh oh, it starts with a C. Oh, I think I know the answer. So is this a Wordle? Is this a New York Times Wordle? Is it five?

SPEAKER_01:

Paul, Paul, Paul and I, we don't we don't we don't do Zillow. And I'll just say it, I don't give a shit. We don't do it, and the reality is this we're building a business, and so is Zillow. And there is a lot that's gonna be coming down in 2026, and I'm I'd love to sit here with the CEO of Zillow and just have at it.

SPEAKER_00:

I had a couple questions as we round out 26. I think we want to stay on time with Heather. Yes. Um, and this one we can pass it if it's not one that's just doing my homework. The one came up was like, is there an overlook like metric that's gonna tell a story of you know, of the market heading into 2026? Is there something that like for you guys is sort of like a little signature thing? Keep an eye on this in 26. Keep an eye on it. Yeah, is there anything like you when you're looking at 2026, you're looking at the market, is there a little clue or hint? Brian's got one. I mean, I'm watching rates, right?

SPEAKER_01:

Okay, that's gonna get a lot of people that off the fence that really, really want to experience homeownership. So I think rates, rates, rates is a big one in job stability. Job stability is gonna be good. That's yeah. And rates are gonna come down a little bit, right? So everybody's feeling, and I do feel that's probably part of that 14% increase we're gonna see. Because now people can get into what they want.

SPEAKER_00:

So what once again the rates come down, prices go up. I mean, that's what we're thinking. So it's like, why not buy now? Refinance. And the other one as far as the market trend, and then we can transition the second half of it here is um, are you seeing like signals of who are these buyers going to be? I mean, that that's so interesting to me. Is like I think we lived our life here and we saw how it went, but when you talk about it being up 14%, Bri, um, do you have an instinct of where that money's gonna come from, where these people are coming from that are gonna San Jose still. Yeah. I mean, I'm I'm in Boulder Creek showing property, and there's a lot shut the hell up. No, I just love that what happened to you the other day, but go ahead. Oh, yeah. I was going by the open house and freaking one little fender bender, the whole fucking road shots down. Two fire trucks, freaking ambulance, three cop cars. I'm like, are you kidding me? Come on, you push the guy out of the way, let's go. It wasn't Brian's daughter, was it? No, it was not Brian's daughter.

SPEAKER_01:

That's directed at you, Keanu.

SPEAKER_00:

But but everybody that came to the open house that weekend, they're all from San Jose. Yeah. They want to get out of the rat race, you know? Nvidia. They're gonna have more millionaires now than ever, right? Because NVIDIA. Yeah. So they're all coming over buying everything.

SPEAKER_01:

Dual income, over the hill, large tech, large jobs. Hence why our market's changing. Santa Cruz isn't what it was, and that's that's a reason.

SPEAKER_00:

Of what percentage? Um now we say it's gonna be up, but of that using a hundred percent percentage, what percentage would be income properties? What percentage of that do you think people will be living here? Ish? No, they're l living here. They will be living here. Okay, so they're literally trying to buy, get away, live. They're getting out of the way. Yeah, see, yeah. They're doing, you know, they're getting out of the way and moving here, which everybody's been doing. Yeah. So they're saying we don't have seasons of selling. You know, it's been a consistent all year long. Now they're telling about we're gonna go back to seasons again, like springtime. Everybody wants to buy in springtime. Okay. So we'll see. You know, that was 2009-19. We went down. Our offer artificial freaking sales were going from 20 to 25. Yep. Now we're going back into 2009-19 and and the seasons. So we'll see.

SPEAKER_01:

Stats don't lie. Look at patterns. Go back to 2019, look what was happening, and look what's happening right now. We were heading into a dip.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01:

Oh, yeah. And then COVID hit. And the reality is the market went completely opposite. No one was expecting that.

SPEAKER_00:

Nobody. Let's get a cliffhanger. We could pick this up on the next one, also. So in the post right now, now what you'll be hearing is the drive-in movie theater popcorn intermission song. And because I'm gonna hit pause, and then when we hear the end of that song, we're gonna come back with Heather.